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AlexMennen comments on Harsanyi's Social Aggregation Theorem and what it means for CEV - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (86)
Subjective uncertainty doesn't seem particularly relevant to Friendly AI, since the FAI could come up with a more accurate probability estimate than everyone else, and axiom 2 could refer to what everyone would want if they knew the probabilities as well as the FAI did. Do you have any examples of undesirable effects of the Pareto property that do not involve subjective uncertainty, or do you think subjective uncertainty is more important than I think it is?
I'm not sure. It probably depends on what "priors" really are and/or whether people have common priors. I have a couple of posts that explain these problems a bit more. But it does seem quite possible that the more recent results in the Bayesian aggregation literature aren't really relevant to FAI.
Accurate probability estimate is a bit of oxymoron for anything other than certain class of problems where you have objective probability as a property of a non-linear system that has certain symmetries (e.g. die that bounces enough times).
How to measure accuracy