You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Luke_A_Somers comments on Harsanyi's Social Aggregation Theorem and what it means for CEV - Less Wrong Discussion

21 Post author: AlexMennen 05 January 2013 09:38PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (86)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 07 January 2013 09:44:02PM 1 point [-]

I don't see how it's like Simpson's paradox, actually. You want to go to Good Hospital instead of Bad Hospital even if more patients who go to Good Hospital die because they get almost the hard cases. Aggregating only hides the information needed to make a properly informed choice. Here, aggregating doesn't hide any information.

But there are a bunch of other ways things like that can happen.

This very morning I did a nonlinear curvefit on a bunch of repeats of an experiment. One of the parameters that came out had values in the range -1 to +1. I combined the data sets directly and that parameter for the combined set came out around 5.

In a way, this analogy may be even more directly applicable than Simpson's paradox. Even if A and B are complete specifications (unlike that parameter, which was one of several), the interpersonal reactions to other people can do some very nonlinear things to interpretations of A and B.