I think I see where you're going with this, but your presentation actually leads somewhere else entirely; you discuss your point in the introduction and the conclusion, but you invest the majority of the weight of your argument into a place where your point is nowhere to be found.
Your argument, as presented, seems to be along these lines: Suppose there is one person, and one person is tortured. That's really important. Suppose there are a billion people, and one of them is tortured. That's not very important.
What I think you're getting at is more along these lines: Suppose there is one person, and one person is tortured; that is extremely important to that person. Suppose there are a billion copies of that one person, and one of them is tortured. Even a slight benefit arising from a decision leading to that torture may outweigh, by virtue of the fact that the benefit has been reproduced a billion less one times, the badness of the torture.
In other words, your presentation conflates the number of people with the importance of something bad happening to one of them. You don't discuss potential rewards at all; it's just, this torture is happening. Torture is equally bad regardless of the percentage of the population that is being tortured (given a specific number of people that are being tortured, I mean); we shouldn't care less about torture merely because there are more people who aren't being tortured. Whereas your actual point, as hinted at, is that, for some group that gains utility per individual as a result of the decision that results in that torture, the relative badness of that decision is dependent on the size of the group.
Or, in other words, you seem to be aiming for a discussion of dustmotes in eyes compared to torture of one person, but you're forgetting to actually discuss the dustmotes.
Your argument, as presented, seems to be along these lines: Suppose there is one person, and one person is tortured. That's really important. Suppose there are a billion people, and one of them is tortured. That's not very important.
No. My argument is as follows: suppose there is one person, duplicated a billion times. These copies are identical, they are the same person. Suppose one copy is deleted. This is equivalent to a-billion-to-one odds of killing all of them. Furthermore, this holds for torture. Assuming this argument holds (and I have yet to se...
I came up with this after watching a science fiction film, which shall remain nameless due to spoilers, where the protagonist is briefly in a similar situation to the scenario at the end. I'm not sure how original it is, but I certainly don't recall seeing anything like it before.
Imagine, for simplicity, a purely selfish agent. Call it Alice. Alice is an expected utility maximizer, and she gains utility from eating cakes. Omega appears and offers her a deal - they will flip a fair coin, and give Alice three cakes if it comes up heads. If it comes up tails, they will take one cake away her stockpile. Alice runs the numbers, determines that the expected utility is positive, and accepts the deal. Just another day in the life of a perfectly truthful superintelligence offering inexplicable choices.
The next day, Omega returns. This time, they offer a slightly different deal - instead of flipping a coin, they will perfectly simulate Alice once. This copy will live out her life just as she would have done in reality - except that she will be given three cakes. The original Alice, however, receives nothing. She reasons that this is equivalent to the last deal, and accepts.
(If you disagree, consider the time between Omega starting the simulation and providing the cake. What subjective odds should she give for receiving cake?)
Imagine a second agent, Bob, who gets utility from Alice getting utility. One day, Omega show up and offers to flip a fair coin. If it comes up heads, they will give Alice - who knows nothing of this - three cakes. If it comes up tails, they will take one cake from her stockpile. He reasons as Alice did an accepts.
Guess what? The next day, Omega returns, offering to simulate Alice and give her you-know-what (hint: it's cakes.) Bob reasons just as Alice did in the second paragraph there and accepts the bargain.
Humans value each other's utility. Most notably, we value our lives, and we value each other not being tortured. If we simulate someone a billion times, and switch off one simulation, this is equivalent to risking their life at odds of 1:1,000,000,000. If we simulate someone and torture one of the simulations, this is equivalent to risking a one-in-a-billion chance of them being tortured. Such risks are often acceptable, if enough utility is gained by success. We often risk our own lives at worse odds.
If we simulate an entire society a trillion times, or 3^^^^^^3 times, or some similarly vast number, and then simulate something horrific - an individual's private harem or torture chamber or hunting ground - then the people in this simulation *are not real*. Their needs and desires are worth, not nothing, but far less then the merest whims of those who are Really Real. They are, in effect, zombies - not quite p-zombies, since they are conscious, but e-zombies - reasoning, intelligent beings that can talk and scream and beg for mercy but *do not matter*.
My mind rebels at the notion that such a thing might exist, even in theory, and yet ... if it were a similarly tiny *chance*, for similar reward, I would shut up and multiply and take it. This could be simply scope insensitivity, or some instinctual dislike of tribe members declaring themselves superior.
Well, there it is! The weirdest of Weirdtopias, I should think. Have I missed some obvious flaw? Have I made some sort of technical error? This is a draft, so criticisms will likely be encorporated into the final product (if indeed someone doesn't disprove it entirely.)