It is common to look at modern Christianity, covering 1/3 of the population of the world and ask why it won, and, in particular, to compare it Judaism and attribute the difference to Paul. But this misses the fact that Judaism was once a successful meme. Paul was not the first Jew to suggest that converts didn't need to be circumcised. At peak, Jews were 10% of the population of the Roman Empire, about the same level as Christianity at the time of the lucky break of Constantine's conversion. We cannot tell, based on one run through history, which was the superior meme.
Since Judaism spread a lot without Paul, perhaps his innovations were not so important. Moreover, he may have made important innovations without noticing and recording them. On the other hand, if he was copying best practices from proselytizing Judaism, perhaps he is a good source of information about memetic fitness.
2000 years later, Judaism does not proselytize. Christianity and Islam have also changed and I am nervous about drawing too many conclusions from their origins.
I'm bolding this just in case you aren't familiar with Ibn Khaldun's theory to emphasise how important this is. I would argue that it is basically correct.
At this point I ask my fellow rationalists to consider. If this was the case, what might decline of 'asabiya look like in modern secular societies if it was happening?
If only people commenting on upheavals in the Middle Eastern world actually knew anything about the Middle East, they might actually make usable predictions. Not that punditry is about predictions anyway.