If the government is competent enough to shut down BTC by force (which I kinda doubt), then they're probably competent enough to do something (for them) better: spread the meme that BTC is untraceable and then trace the illicit transactions. I don't think the average user of BTC is capable of pulling off an information-theoretically-untraceable transaction, if such a thing is possible at all. And how can you be sure that the FBI/CIA isn't actually running the coin-mixers?
Either way, I give a low probability of bitcoin vanishing in the next year. 5%? 10%? I think I put down 5% on gwern's predictionbook entry.
This makes sense if you assume the USG shutting down bitcoin is likely to actually be about the illicit transactions. Moldbug isn't making that assumption. Neither would I.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.