It's a good theory and the priors for it being true are high, but the one study that should have been able to test it directly got the opposite results as the theory would have predicted; patients with consistently low cholesterol over twenty years had higher mortality rate than patients with sudden drops in cholesterol.
One study isn't enough to draw any conclusions, but it does prevent me from considering the issue completely solved despite the elegance of this explanation.
Fascinating. But note that these are still very old people with declining cholesterol as they age. The study is more relevant to physicians deciding whether to prescribe statins to their elderly patients, and less relevant to young people deciding whether to keep cholesterol low throughout life with diet.
I'd need to read the whole study, but what I see so far doesn't even contradict the hypothesis I outlined. The abstract says that people who had low cholesterol at the last two examinations did worse than people who had low cholesterol at only the last ...
Discussion of a Norwegian study looking at 50,000 people who didn't have pre-existing heart disease for ten years. http://drmalcolmkendrick.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/mortality-and-cholesterol1.png?w=600&h=309
Here's the study.
Here's the actual conclusion from the study, which dhoe pointed out in comments is considerably milder than the quote above:
However, the chart (the png link above-- I don't know how to make the image appear) shows that the all cause mortality for women was lower if their cholesterol results were higher.
A different big study which also found that low cholesterol was dangerous, but high cholesterol was also dangerous in terms of heart attacks, though mostly for men under fifty, and (I think) not so much for women.
A comment explains that the usual test for cholesterol isn't actually for cholesterol, it's for the lipoproteins which keep all sorts of fat molecules from forming large blobs in a watery environment.
This sort of thing appeals to a number of my prejudices, so I'm hoping to get some more meticulous angles on it from LW.
Post edited to add discussion of the conclusion of the Norwegian study.