DataPacRat comments on How confident are you in the Atomic Theory of Matter? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Alright, to try and make calibration easier, how about this thought experiment - which do you think would be more likely: that if you bought a random ticket, you'd then win the grand prize of a 1-in-a-1,000 lottery; or that atomic theory will be proven false? At what point does the odds of the lottery ticket seem to start coming close to the odds of falsifying atomic theory?