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shminux comments on How confident are you in the Atomic Theory of Matter? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Note that probabilities like that cannot be estimated because they are at the noise level. For example, the odds are about the same that you are delusional and no one asked this question (i.e., the odds are tiny and hard to evaluate).
What level of confidence is high (or low) enough that you would feel means that something is within the 'noise level'?
Depending on how smart I feel today, anywhere from -10 to 40 decibans.
(edit: I remember how log odds work now.)