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Viliam_Bur comments on How confident are you in the Atomic Theory of Matter? - Less Wrong Discussion
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To not avoid the question, I say 99.9999%. And while saying this, I also note that I am not really good at estimating probabilities with this preciseness.
By the way, you should make a poll. With options e.g. "less than 99%", "99%", "99.9%" ... "99.9999999%", "more than "99.9999999%", "1".
Now that I've gotten an initial range of estimates here - from around 30 decibans (10 bits, 1 in a thousand) to a hundred decibans (33 bits, 1 in 10 billion), I just might do something along those lines... or maybe I'll try drafting out a new post (maybe even for Main) that doesn't have all the flaws of this one, such as 'How confident can you be?', including such a poll.