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DataPacRat comments on How confident are you in the Atomic Theory of Matter? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Would you care to offer any estimates of /your/ priors for Bayes, etc? Or what your own inputs or outputs for the overall process you describe might be?
I haven't calculated the longer version yet, but my general impression so far is that I'm around the ~60 deciban mark as my general upper bound for any single piece of knowledge.
I'm not sure I'm even capable of calculating the longer version, since I suspect there's a lot more information problems and more advanced math required for calculating things like the probability distributions of causal independence over individually-uncertain memories forged from unreliable causes in the (presumably very complex) causal graph representing all of this and so on.