Sewing-Machine comments on I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (244)
If you really had faked this experiment, you might have settled on a lie which is not maximally beneficial to you, and then you might use exactly this argument to convince people that you're not lying. I don't know if this tactic has a name, but it should. I've used it when playing Mafia, for example; as Mafia, I once attempted to lie about being the Detective (who I believe was dead at the time), and to do so convincingly I sold out one of the other members of the Mafia.
In this venue, you shouldn't say things like this without giving your estimate for P(fail|fake) / P(fail).
I'm not sure I know what you mean by "fail." Can you clarify what probabilities you want me to estimate?
P(claims to have lost | faked experiment) / P(claims to have lost)
On the order of 1. I don't think it's strong evidence either way.