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Qiaochu_Yuan comments on I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost) - Less Wrong Discussion

47 Post author: Tuxedage 21 January 2013 02:59AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 22 January 2013 12:13:02PM *  0 points [-]

If you really had faked this experiment, you might have settled on a lie which is not maximally beneficial to you, and then you might use exactly this argument to convince people that you're not lying.

In this venue, you shouldn't say things like this without giving your estimate for P(fail|fake) / P(fail).

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 22 January 2013 12:36:01PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure I know what you mean by "fail." Can you clarify what probabilities you want me to estimate?

Comment author: ESRogs 22 January 2013 08:10:47PM 1 point [-]

P(claims to have lost | faked experiment) / P(claims to have lost)

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 22 January 2013 11:12:19PM 0 points [-]

On the order of 1. I don't think it's strong evidence either way.

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