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Elithrion comments on AI box: AI has one shot at avoiding destruction - what might it say? - Less Wrong Discussion
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(one line proof that the AI can credibly commit to deals with humans)
My expectation that such commitment is possible at all is something like 3%, my expectation that given that such a commitment is possible, the proof can be presented in understandable format in less than 4 pages is 5% (one line is so unlikely it's hard to even imagine), my expectation that an AI can make a proof that I would mistake for being true when it is, in fact, false is 99%. So, multiplying that all together... does not make that a very convincing argument.