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Zaine comments on Cryo and Social Obligations - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (74)
Is this an accurate estimation?
Id est, "I observe that most people don't have a truly considered rejection to cryonics." Please correct me if I mis-paraphrase.
Condition one: the above is true. Condition two: the above is most people's true rejection to cryonics. Again, correct me if my breakdown errs.
The proposal so far:
Thus:
- Brainstorming "[w]hat could we do to help [revived cryonically preserved persons] integrate into modern life..." is worthwhile.
Indeed, the conclusion does sound like a fun activity. In fact, I think a marketing campaign by cryonics companies would, from a Dark Arts perspective, either help the companies or simply pad the wallet of whoever pitches them the idea.
However, I broke down your post into its composite implied assertions and assumptions to illuminate how conditional the argument is. I've noticed in your other posts a tendency to take an idea and run with it, which is a wonderful tendency that often leads to fun ideas, but can also send you down a dead avenue of thought. I urge you to take care when conceiving possible worthwhile courses of action, and to duly consider the accuracy, veracity, and soundness of each observation, assertion, and conclusion in your argument or 'thought matrix' starting from the beginning (anyone have a better word for what I refer to?). Perhaps the thought process doesn't matter so much as the conclusion - then by all means test the conclusion. I just wished to make you aware, if you weren't already, of a tendency that could over time waste many productive hours.
Assuming that you count the subculture as being those people who have a membership with one of the cryo providers: Yep. Reference: http://www.cryonics.org/comparisons.html , as of a few months ago, Alcor has 975 members, and Cryonics Institute has 1033, including those who haven't made full cryo-preservation arrangements.
Not at all - it's as accurate a breakdown as I could ask for.
(I'm noticeable! Yay! <ahem>)
That tendency likely stems from my background with SF and RPG world-building, where much of the fun comes from doing just that with any given premise.
Depending on how you look at it, I've already wasted a lot of productive hours on just that - I have a pet SF setting I've put together specifically to try thinking up the consequences of a few premises about some minor technological advancements... and to try to find any contradictions in the ideas I end up coming up with. Fortunately, I seem to have a good deal of time compared to the number of ideas I come up with that have any significant potential... so as long as I do keep in mind that any particular idea I try following could end up being a dud, one way to think of the whole exercise is summarized by an entry from my quotefile:
"On the mountains of truth you can never climb in vain: either you will reach a point higher up today, or you will be training your powers so that you will be able to climb higher tomorrow. "
Any thoughts? :)
Those figures surprise me.
Aside from noting smiley faces seem to have the power to compel compliance, I will try to follow my own advice.
In which direction, and to what degree?
I thought them low, and was mildly surprised. Partly because the cryonics subculture is briefly mentioned in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon and I assumed that the subculture has persisted since at least 1997 (when Stephenson was writing the novel), I concluded that two thousand was a low estimation - simply because a subculture that could not accrue more members is in my eyes a pitiable thing (evoking of pathos). Considering how long Cryonics has been possible, I had thought more than a couple thousand of people would have ever been cryo-preserved. Although I doubt those figures represent all cryo-preserved persons.
Taking my prior advice into account, that's a lot of assumptions, I know. I have not researched cryonics thoroughly, as I'd like to understand enough of the neuroscience to form my own opinion. With my current level of knowledge I have low confidence in cryonics; the degree to which extreme cold destroys brain matter (on a molecular level) is one issue.
I seem to have described my numbers a bit off, so I'll try again to try to make sure the confusion is cleared up:
There are currently around 2,000 living people who are members of cryo organizations.
There are currently around 200 dead (or 'dead') people who have been cryo-preserved.
I don't disagree with you about that. However, given the range of options currently available on the table, if I have a lethal heart attack this year... there don't seem to really be any other options I /can/ make arrangements for. It's possible that the damage you describe will, one day, eventually be able to be repaired; in which case, no worries. Or, it's possible the damage you describe will never be able to be repaired; in which case, in another sense, no worries.
(Part of my current consultations with my lawyer about my will, is to arrange for as much of my personal writing and similar data to be stored with me - and at least part of the reasoning for my doing that, is to provide another set of data about the way my brain functions in case it might help with future repair efforts. It's even more of a longshot than cryo itself, but since I'd like to have that data with me anyway if I'm revived, it doesn't seem to be a negative.)