When she wakes up, she knows the game has ended. Before she goes to sleep, she knows she will know this when she wakes up. So how can her probability estimate change between the two events?
When she goes to sleep, doesn't she not know whether you will play the game? After all, the number of 'players' depends on how many rounds it will take before double sixes are rolled so the only guaranteed way for you to be picked is if you were first in line to be picked.
This is the bimonthly 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question:
What are you working on?
Here are some guidelines: