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Alexei comments on Donating while in temporary debt (i.e. as a student) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Oh, I see. I'm saying "Look, there is a 30% investment right now" and you are saying "Well, if it's true, then it seems like you'll be able to find other 30% investments in the future. Unless you have some evidence that this opportunity is different."
Good point. My evidence for this decade being special is that we only need to build FAI movement once, and the future is by a large extent determined by how the AI researchers react to the challenge. I'll have to think about this point more, though.
"Look, there is a 30% investment right now"
But not one for which you can recapture the proceeds in cash. So a return-on-investment frame can mislead: if your spending compounds at some rate n times, and no more, and you don't get the money back, then over longer time frames it falls further and further behind things that can be reinvested and compound for longer.