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Daniel_Burfoot comments on Politics Discussion Thread February 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Good question. I would say the probability is low, but the event has high expected impact (i.e. high expected number of deaths and economic losses).
I am just reciting Taleb's philosophy of history here, but it seems likely that history is dominated by events with this character (= low probability but high expected impact).
A difficult but important problem would be to rank events by expected impact.
I think you also want to incorporate some measure of their probability in there as well.
That's what "expected" means.