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ikrase comments on Politics Discussion Thread February 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I would say sub- 5% given a low prior for rich, well-governed nations fighting all out wars, Japan being relatively demilitarized still (and war being technically illegal), and the US having a defense commitment there.
Next decade? Extremely low.
What about next 3 decades?
I am going to guess still pretty low although highly militarized intrigue, cyberwar, etc might happen. Or a false start (in either direction).
I also really wonder just how strong the Peace of Europe is.