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Eugine_Nier comments on Politics Discussion Thread February 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I would say sub- 5% given a low prior for rich, well-governed nations fighting all out wars, Japan being relatively demilitarized still (and war being technically illegal), and the US having a defense commitment there.
On the other hand China is facing social unrest and as well as problems due to its gender imbalance, so a war that gives people an enemy besides the government to focus their anger as well as killing of excess males might make sense from its point of view.