ThrustVectoring comments on Politics Discussion Thread February 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I would say sub- 5% given a low prior for rich, well-governed nations fighting all out wars, Japan being relatively demilitarized still (and war being technically illegal), and the US having a defense commitment there.
Sub-5% is very conservative. It's likely sub-2%. Japan is simply too anti-military, and China owns too many US dollars.