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Jandila comments on Politics Discussion Thread February 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I would say sub- 5% given a low prior for rich, well-governed nations fighting all out wars, Japan being relatively demilitarized still (and war being technically illegal), and the US having a defense commitment there.
On paper, sure. In practice the JSDF is one of the world's top ten military forces by overall measures.
Cite?
Japan ranks #6 in the world for total military expenditures, according to SIPRI 2012.
The JMSDF ranks #4 for tonnage of the world's navies (counting only active, commissioned combat-oriented vessels).