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PikachuSpecial comments on The Fundamental Question - Rationality computer game design - Less Wrong Discussion
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Further suggestion: Players should learn about the distinction between accuracy and calibration. There should occasionally be scenarios where the real solution is not something the information available to you singles out as probable. Players should learn that banking on an unlikely solution is never a good bet, but highly probable solutions are still only probable rather than certain.
Players' performance would be tracked, not just in terms of their ability to get the right answers, but their ability to be right about how often they're right.
I disagree that there should be situations where the less likely situation is correct only becaus it is less likely ( as a pre-programmed result). The likelihood of an event occurring in the game should be a result of your acquired evidence and only 100% certainty can exist when there is enough concrete evidence supporting the outcome. Within the game it should be possible for the true outcome to receive a high probability. Your idea however is essential in situations where the probability of events are very close. For example in a situation with 5 outcomes where all their probabilities are 15-30% it wouldn't and shouldn't be obvious.
100% isn't a probability, and while it's often feasible to approach it in practice, it's also often not, because the evidence necessary to reach that degree of confidence simply isn't available.
If you reach 95% confidence, you should still be wrong 5% of the time.
If the player learns that they can collect all the available evidence and be right 100% of the time in the game, and then finds that they simply can't do that in real life, they may be disillusioned with the applicability of the general techniques of the game.