Mm, well.
How about the alternative being probably destruction? I'm not optimistic about our future. I do think we're likely to be alone within this hubble volume, though.
Hmmm. What specific X-risks are you worried about? UFAI beating MUFAI (what I consider this to be) to the punch?
Not sure about 'probably destruction' and no life going to arise in universe (Hubble volume? Does it matter?). But I think that the choice is unrealistic given the possibility of making another, less terrible AI in another few years.
-A lot of this probably depends on my views on the Singularity and the like: I have never had particularly a high estimation of either the promise or the peril of FOOMing AI.
I offer this particular scenario because it seems conceivable that with no possible competition between people, it would be possible to avoid doing interpersonal utility comparison, which could make Mostly Friendly AI (MFAI) easier. I don't think this is likely or even worthy of serious consideration, but it might make some of the discussion questions easier to swallow.
1. Value is fragile. But is Eliezer right in thinking that if we get just one piece wrong the whole endeavor is worthless? (Edit: Thanks to Lukeprog for pointing out that this question completely misrepresents EY's position. Error deliberately preserved for educational purposes.)
2. Is the above scenario better or worse than the destruction of all earth-originating intelligence? (This is the same as question 1.)
3. Are there other values (besides affecting-the-real-world) that you would be willing to trade off?
4. Are there other values that, if we traded them off, might make MFAI much easier?
5. If the answers to 3 and 4 overlap, how do we decide which direction to pursue?