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NancyLebovitz comments on Open thread, February 15-28, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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What gross example of irrationality? The vast majority of people with headaches don't have anything to worry about.
The question is whether "people with headaches" is the right reference class. If the headache is unusually severe or persistent, it makes sense to look deeper. Also, a doctor can ask for details about the headache before prescribing the expensive tests.
More precisely, the question is whether or not the right reference class is one in which cancer tests are worth while. The headaches would have to be very unusually severe to get enough evidence.
It was never mentioned whether or not the doctor asked for details. It's also possible that none of those reference classes are worth looking into, and she'd need headaches and something else.
Cancer isn't the only solvable problem which could get ignored if headaches are handled as a minor problem which will go away on their own.
Yeah, but the other ones also get ignored if you assume it's cancer. To my knowledge, they have to be individually tested for. If none is worth testing for individually, it's best to ignore the headaches.