lukeprog comments on Falsifiable and non-Falsifiable Ideas - Less Wrong Discussion
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This post is somewhat confused. I would recommend that you finish reading the Sequences before making a future post.
One way to think about what is accomplished when you perform a thought experiment is that you are performing an experiment where the subject is your brain. The goal is to figure out what your brain thinks will happen, and statements about such things are falsifiable statements about brains.
The world is not the same either way because the dragon-believer is not the same either way. If the dragon-believer actually believes that there's a dragon in her garage (as opposed to believing in her belief that she has a dragon in her garage), that belief can affect how she makes other decisions. Truths are entangled and lies are contagious.
Why?
Can you give some examples of beliefs with this property?
Why call it a belief instead of an idea, then? (And why the emphasis on originality?)
Or at the very least, read Eliezer's new epistemology sequence, which directly addresses the questions at the heart of the OP.