I would expect a 30-year old dog to be as fertile as it is generally healthy. In other words, I expect fertility not to decline much sooner than the rest of the body. If it does, we recognize it as something special, like the menopause.
There's a problem predicting purely from theory. No single component or function (whether fertility or something else) would normally age faster than the others, because evolution would select against that. But if a crucial function like fertility stopped working after a certain age and there weren't any selectable variants that kept it working longer, then animals that lived longer but were infertile wouldn't have a much greater fitness than those who died as soon as they became infertile, and we would see the same result - animals being fertile roughly as long as they live.
If ... there weren't any selectable variants that ....
Exactly- There have never been selectable variants that are immortal (or even nearly so). Whether that is because immortality is hard (unlikely to result from random drift) or not is irrelevant for the purposes of natural selection if it never happens.
At a recent Reddit AMA, Eric Lander, a professor of biology who played an important part in the Human Genome Project, answered this question:
His response:
This seems to me, at first blush, to exhibit the Evolution of Species Fairy fallacy. Evolution doesn't work to benefit species, populations, or the "next generation". If a mutation arises that increases longevity, and has no other downsides, then animals with that mutation should become more common in the gene pool, because they die less often. I remember reading that the effect would not be very strong, because most animals don't die of old age. But why would there be the opposite effect?
I am loath to attribute a very basic error to a distinguished professor of biology. Is there another explanation? Is the claim that evolution selects for mortality true?
Note: Eric went on to add:
This seems to be blatant rationalization of a preconceived idea that death is good. (I doubt he truly believes that extra progress is worth everybody dying.) So perhaps his first statement is also a form of rationalization. But it seems improbable to me that he would make such a statement about biology if he didn't think it well-founded. More likely there's something I'm misunderstanding.
ETA: one of the first Google results is this page at nature.com, The Evolution of Aging by Daniel Fabian, which goes into some depth on the subject. The bottom line is that it agrees with my expectation that evolution does not select for mortality. Choice quotes:
How could a distinguished professor of biology, a leader of the HGP and advisor to the US President, get something so elementary wrong, when even a biology undergrad dropout like myself notices this seems wrong?
ETA #2: Gwern points to the Wikipedia article on Evolution of Ageing, which lists several competing theories of the evolution of aging (and therefore mortality). This shows the subject is more complex than I had thought and there may be good reason to believe mortality is selected for by evolution (or at least is reliably linked to something else that is selected).
I should be glad that I didn't discover an obvious error being committed by a distinguished professional, even if he may be ultimately wrong!