army1987 comments on Need some psychology advice - Less Wrong Discussion
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Fallacy of grey. The “you won't” possibility includes them breaking up tomorrow, them breaking up next year, or either of them dying in thirty years, among others.
Let Day N be the breakup day.
I don't see the analysis changing. For all N, not fretting over it is the dominating strategy, and he'll move on and get over it.
You're forgetting that his actions can themselves affect the value of N. (On the other hand, I agree with your conclusions.)
I didn't phrase it in the best way, but I wasn't forgetting that behavior can affect the value of N. That was one of the points.