Qiaochu_Yuan comments on Open Thread, March 1-15, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Agree with the first part but not (the wording of) the second part. If you know beforehand that something would be a mistake, don't be stupid.
But you shouldn't necessarily trust your brain to accurately predict whether things will be mistakes.
The question is where you cut off. What chance of making a mistake is acceptable?