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DanArmak comments on AI prediction case study 2: Dreyfus's Artificial Alchemy - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ignore Dreyfus himself for the moment. A paper was published that made correct predictions, and gave correct explanations for them, at a time when most experts in the field disagreed. The question is, was there a better cognitive strategy or a better prediction algorithm those experts could have followed, which would have allowed them to recognize the rightness of that paper?