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Elithrion comments on Personal Evidence - Superstitions as Rational Beliefs - Less Wrong Discussion
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I meant "someone close to him" in a relationship, not a spatial, sense (so, "other family member or friend he knows about"). Which I guess is still kind of just a different connotation, but I think one worth noticing separately from the "crazy lurker who's been around for a while" hypothesis.
I see. Thanks for clarifying.