PhilGoetz comments on The Universal Medical Journal Article Error - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (189)
You are making the same mistake by ignoring the quantification. The test used to reject P(hyper|dye) > P(hyper|~dye) uses a cutoff that is set from the sample size using the assumption that all the children have the identical response. They didn't find P(hyper|dye) = P(hyper|~dye), they rejected the hypothesis that for all children, P(hyper|dye) > P(hyper|~dye), and then inappropriately concluded that for all children, !P(hyper|dye) > P(hyper|~dye).