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lsparrish comments on Bitcoin Cryonics Fund - Less Wrong Discussion
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They both fall under the category of a highly underestimated long bets in my mind. Bitcoin's recent rise in value vindicates my earlier speculative feelings and makes me wish I had listened to them more consistently (not selling out my personal stock, e.g.). So I should be more confident associating it with cryonics than I was before.
If you think of them as simple independent variables, success for both cryonics and bitcoin would appear a less probable conjunction than success for either cryonics or bitcoin. However popularity can drive technology and vice versa in both areas. So given that both are early-adopter material at present anyway, it is plausible that they would complement / benefit from association with each other overall.
Another point is that cryonics encourages long-term thinking about end of life / post-death long term trusts for patient care. If we assume the thing that makes it harder to win in bitcoin is the urge to spend too soon, this gives cryonicists a competitive advantage.
Not what I was trying to get at, sorry for the confusion. My aim is to boost cryonics reputation, and my concern was that e.g. associating it with bitcoin could harm it if bitcoin becomes devalued. (Actually a fairly minor concern, since cryonics already has a lot of early-adopter types.)
Learning from experience. I had 400 bitcoins at one time. Had I held them, they would be worth $40k at $100 each today. This is roughly what I would have predicted at the time, too. I let short-term fluctuations ruin my confidence despite knowing the technology was good.
Yeah. But I have to update based on evidence.
Success of cryonics and success of bitcoin aren't necessarily independent variables. Holding some bitcoins for cryonics could boost the chance of e.g. having assets needed for cryonics research, or having the ability to get people signed up to take advantage of cryonics.