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gwern comments on Problems in Education - Less Wrong Discussion
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Only if you make the very strong assumptions that there is no systematic bias or selection effect or regression to the mean or anything which might cause the unstability to favor an increase.
Plus you ignored my other points.
Plus we already know from the pairs of before-afters that these researchers are either incredibly incompetent or actively dishonest.
Plus we already know biases in analysis or design or data collection can be introduced much more subtly. Gould's brainpacking problems is only the latest example.
Which claim and assumption we will make because we are terminally optimistic, and to borrow from the '90s, "I want to believe!"
Wow, you still aren't giving up on the Pygmalion study? Just let it go already. You don't even have to give up on your wish for self-fulfilling expectations - there are plenty of followup studies which turned in your desired significant effects.
What effects could cause an increase of 8 points on a properly normed test across the board? Why would there a significant benefit to being in the control group of this study?
You can rule out that they were using a test which produced the scores that they recorded, perhaps by using raw score rather than normed output. You can rule out every other explanation for why the recorded results aren't valid scores. You can even rule out that they were competently dishonest, since competent dishonesty would be nontrivial to detect; your only possible conclusion is incompetence, which isn't evidence which should change your priors.
Incompetence is the social equivalent of the null hypothesis, and there is very rarely any significant evidence against it.
Assuming only incompetence as you have, the expected result would be equally erratic for all students. You can assign any likelihood to the assumption that the incompetence was the primary factor and that dishonesty doesn't modify it significantly, but you have already concluded systemic incompetent dishonesty across a large number of studies.
As you say, it's been confirmed by other studies. I'm not insisting that a particular study was done correctly, I'm explaining why their conclusions being true is consistent with the errors in their study. (Which means that a study with those flaws would be expected to reach the same conclusions, if those conclusions were true)
I already gave you three separate explanations for why an increase is possible, even in controls.
I have no idea what you mean by this, and I think that if one accepts their incompetence, the best thing to do is to ignore their data as having been poisoned in unknown ways - maliciousness, ideology, and stupidity often being difficult to tell apart.
Why is that? The competent result is, since IQ interventions almost universally fail (our prior for any result like 'we increased IQ by 8 points' ought to be very low, as in, well below 1%, because hundreds of interventions have failed to pan out and 8 points is astounding and practically on the level of iodization) and the followups confirm that there is only a much much smaller effect, that there is no or a small effect. Any incompetence is going to lead to an extreme result. Like what they found.
'Confirmed'? Well, this is an active debate as to what counts as a replication. Near the same magnitude or just having the same sign? If someone publishes a study claiming to find a weight loss drug that will drop 100 pounds, and exhaustive replications find that the true estimate is actually 1 pound, has the original claim been "confirmed"? After all, both estimates are non-zero and both estimates have the same sign...
So, "systematic bias or selection effect or regression to the mean" can result in average properly normed IQ scores increasing by 8 points? Doesn't the normalizing process (when done properly) force the average score to remain constant?
What normalizing process? You mean the one the paid psychometricians go through years before any specific test is purchased by researchers like the ones doing the Pygmalion study? Yeah, I suppose so, but that's irrelevant to the discussion.
Right- because the entire population going up half a SD in a year isn't unusual at all, and the test purchased for use in this study was normalized the way one would expect it to be, despite the fact that it had results that are impossible if it was normalized in that manner.
...'entire population'?
Alright, I have to admit I have no idea what test you are now referring to. I thought we were discussing the Pygmalion results in which a small sample of elementary school students turned in increased IQ scores, which could be explained by a number of well-known and perfectly ordinary processes.
But it seems like you're talking about something completely else and may be thinking of country-level Flynn effects or something, I have no idea what.
The PitC study showed an 8 point IQ increase in the control group. You offered those three explanations and said that they explained why that wasn't particularly unusual, and my understanding of normed IQ tests is that they are expected to remain constant over short times.
Over the general average population when tested once, yes. But the control group is neither general nor average nor the population nor tested once.
If the control group isn't at least representative, there is a different methodology flaw. If the confounding factor of prior IQ tests wasn't measured, given that there is apparently a significant increase in scores on the first retest (and presumably a diminishing increase in scores at some point; the expected result of taking the test very many times isn't to become the highest scorer ever), there is an unaccounted confounding factor.
I'm still trying to figure out what questions to ask before I dig up as much primary source as I can. Is "points of normed IQ" the right thing to measure? That would imply that going from an IQ of 140 to 152 is equally as much a gain as going from 94 to 106. Is raw score the right thing to measure? That would imply that going from being able to answer 75% of the questions accurately to 80% is equally as much gain as going from 25% to 30%. Is the percentage decrease in incorrect answers the correct metric? 75%-80% would be the same as 25%-40%. The percentage increase in correct answers? 25%-30% (20% increase) would be equivalent to 75%-90%.
I'm still reluctant to accept class grades and state-mandated graduation test scores as measuring primarily intelligence or even mastery of the material, rather than the specific skill of taking the test. That makes my error bars larger than those of someone who does accept them as accurate measurements of something important.