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CarlShulman comments on Taking Charity Seriously: Toby Ord talk on charity effectivess - Less Wrong Discussion
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So do you expect uploading in the next several decades, or big slowdowns in the improvement of computation per dollar?
I expect most new things to first be available in small quantity at expensive prices and low quality, especially if you're literally talking about putting them to use in the first hours or days after they become possible. In fact, no non-trivial examples that involve any specialized hardware at all come to mind. Am I missing any major ones? Are there major reasons uploading would be different?
Why expect specialized hardware to be a bottleneck? Most software programs don't require very specialized hardware.
If computation per dollar continues on trend to far surpass minima for brain emulation, then I would expect final bottlenecks to be in brain-scanning or (more likely) understanding the neuroscience, not shaving cycles off the computation of Hodgkin-Huxley.
I'm pretty sure it was the brain-scanning that evand had in mind when referring to "specialized hardware".
Exactly.