hairyfigment comments on Probabilistic Löb theorem - Less Wrong Discussion
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Again, Christiano et al supposedly prove the existence of a coherent distribution with certain properties. (Someone who knows game theory better than I do should work out what the proof depends on.) Any such distribution necessarily violates the probabilistic Loeb's theorem, for roughly the reason given in the OP's second-to-last section.
Not as far as this lay-reader can see. Again, the distribution must satisfy derivation principle #1. I can't tell if it must obey #3, though if it does that would seem to rule out a stronger version of #2.