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bentarm comments on [LINK] How to calibrate your confidence intervals - Less Wrong Discussion
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So, since basically everyone in the world is overconfident, you can make them better calibrated just by making them come up with an interval and then doubling it.
What I've never really got is how you become accurately calibrated at the long tails. Are there really people who can consistently give both 90% and 95% confidence intervals? To me those both just feel like "really likely", and the higher the granularity, the harder it gets - note that a 98% confidence interval should probably be twice as wide as a 95% confidence interval. Are there people who have truly internalised this?