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Douglas_Reay comments on What do professional philosophers believe, and why? - Less Wrong Discussion
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See the sequence:
When you suggest someone read three full length posts in response to a single sentence some context is helpful, especially if they weren't upvoted. Maybe summarize their point or something.
If it was easy to summarize, it wouldn't have required a three parter sequence. :-)
However, perhaps one relevant point from it is:
For the purposes of Newcomb's problem, and the rationality of Fred's decisions, it doesn't matter how close to that level of power Omega actually is. What matters, in terms of rationality, is the evidence available to Fred about how close Omega is to having to that level of power; or, more precisely, the evidence available to Fred relevant to Fred making predictions about Omega's performance in this particular game.
Since this is a key factor in Fred's decision, we ought to be cautious. Rather than specify when setting up the problem that Fred knows with a certainty of 1 that Omega does have that power, it is better to specify a concrete level of evidence that would lead Fred to assign a probability of (1 - δ) to Omega having that power, then examine the effect upon which option to the box problem it is rational for Fred to pick, as δ tends towards 0.