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brazil84 comments on What do professional philosophers believe, and why? - Less Wrong Discussion
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We actually see this across a lot of fields besides philosophy, and it's not LW-specific. For example, simply adding up a few simple scores does better than experts at predicting job performance.
It's been shown that expertise is only valuable in fields where there is a short enough and frequent enough feedback loop for a person to actually develop expertise -- and there is something coherent to develop the expertise in. Outside of such fields, experts are just blowhards with status.
Given the nature of the field, the prior expectation for philosophers having any genuine expertise at anything except impressing people, should be set quite low. (Much like we should expect expert short-term stock pickers to not be expert at anything besides being lucky.)
I don't disagree with this, but do you happen to have a cite?
I would also point out that feedback which consists solely of the opinions of other experts probably shouldn't count as feedback. Too much danger of groupthink.