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gjm comments on Justifiable Erroneous Scientific Pessimism - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 May 2013 08:37PM

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Comment author: gjm 11 May 2013 03:29:12AM 0 points [-]

On flipping the bozo bit

Before you bother to read any of what follows, I would be grateful if you would answer the following question: Have you, in fact, bozo-bitted me? Because I've been proceeding on the assumption that it is in principle possible for us to have a reasoned discussion, but that's looking less and less true, and if I'm wasting my time here then I'd prefer to stop.

On librarians and librarianship

Unless I misunderstand you badly, you are arguing either that I have been lying constantly about this or that I am appallingly unaware of my own opinions and attitudes and you know them better than I do. And, if I understand this remark correctly ...

Right, because you just threw that in for no reason...

... your basis for this is that you can't think of any reason why I might have mentioned that Taube was a librarian other than that I have "contempt for librarians" and that I wanted to put Taube down by calling him names.

So, allow me to propose a very simple alternative explanation (which is, in fact, the correct explanation, so far as I can tell by introspection): I said it because, having listed a bunch of things that weren't Taube's profession, it seemed appropriate to say what his profession actually was.

On the basis of this thread so far, I'm guessing that you still don't believe me; so let me ask: Is there, in fact, anything I could possibly say or do that would convince you that I do not hold librarians in contempt? Because it looks to me as if there isn't, and it seems rather odd that describing someone who was in fact a librarian as a librarian could be such strong evidence of contempt for librarians as to outweigh all future testimony from the person in question.

On professions and the like

There are at least three things you can mean by saying someone is, e.g., "a biologist". (1) That they know something about biology and think about it from time to time. (2) That doing biology is their job, or at least that they do it as much and as well as you could reasonably expect if it were. (3) That, regardless of how much biology they actually do, they have at least some (fairly high) threshold level of expertise in it.

Angela Merkel is surely a physicist(1). She is not a physicist(2) now, although she used to be. Whether she's a physicist(3) depends on what threshold we pick and on the extent to which she's kept up her expertise. Similarly, Ian Bostridge is a historian(1), not a historian(2) so far as I know, and might or might not be a historian(3), and similarly for George Soros and philosophy.

In general, being an X PhD is a guarantee of being an Xer(1) and (at least for a while; knowledge decays) of being an Xer(3) for some plausible choices of threshold; it is of course no guarantee of being an Xer(2).

You appear to be taking the position that it is never reasonable to deny that someone with an X PhD is "an Xer". That seems like excessive credentialism to me.

The relevant notion of "scientist", "philosopher", etc., here was never made explicit. I think I've had meaning 2 in mind sometimes and meaning 3 in mind sometimes. Eliezer's original post about Pascalian wagers takes Enrico Fermi as its leading example, and talks about "famous scientists" and "prestigious scientists" in general. The present post takes Lord Kelvin as another example, but also points to skepticism about flying machines (which was not generally from famous scientists). So I don't know what the "right" threshold for meaning 3 would be here, but it seems like it should be fairly high.

Bostridge, Merkel and Soros seem to me like pretty decent examples of people who are no longer Xers(2), and probably aren't Xers(3) with a high threshold. I could be wrong about some or all of them, though; I mentioned them only to make the more general point that holding a doctoral degree is no guarantee of being an Xer(2) or Xer(3) with high threshold.

On Taube and his qualifications

Taube was an expert in the indexing of documents, and an innovator in that field. In your opinion, does that amount to expertise in computer chess-playing comparable to, say, Fermi's expertise in nuclear fission?

Taube was (I think; perhaps it was actually others in his company who were concerned with this) an expert in automated punched-card reading machines. Does that amount to expertise in computer chess-playing comparable to, etc.?

Taube held a PhD in philosophy; I think his thesis was on the history of philosophical thought about causality. Does that amount to, etc., etc.?

I repeat: Mortimer Taube was an impressive person. He was clearly very smart. He accomplished more than I am ever likely to. I do not hold him in contempt. Still less do I hold him in contempt for having been a librarian. I simply don't think that his opinions on computer chess-playing are the same kind of thing as Fermi's opinions on nuclear fission, or Kelvin's on the age of the earth.