Before clicking through, I expected the response to be something like, "So you're worried about AI replacing human labor and wondering, 'What should I do about it?' Here at MIRI ..."
The actual post turns out to be an intelligent and well-thought out guide for how to predict AI advances. Since it seems to largely agree with the time frame suggested in the article above, it is probably most useful for readers who were skeptical of those claims.
What would you suggest for readers who find themselves mostly convinced by Drum's argument, and are asking the "What should I do" question?
(Context: as a MIRI supporter, I'm not asking for information for myself so much as for resources that would be helpful to share with others who start thinking about intelligence explosion issues within the context of technology replacing human labor.)
What would you suggest for readers who find themselves mostly convinced by Drum's argument, and are asking the "What should I do" question?
Kevin Drum has an article in Mother Jones about AI and Moore's Law:
Although he only mentions consumer goods, Drum presumably means that scarcity will end for services and consumer goods. If scarcity only ended for consumer goods, people would still have to work (most jobs are currently in the services economy).
Drum explains that our linear-thinking brains don't intuitively grasp exponential systems like Moore's law.
He also includes this nice animated .gif which illustrates the principle very clearly.
Drum continues by talking about possible economic ramifications.
Drum says the share of (US) national income going to workers was stable until about a decade ago. I think the graph he links to shows the worker's share has been declining since approximately the late 1960s/early 1970s. This is about the time US immigration levels started increasing (which raises returns to capital and lowers native worker wages).
The rest of Drum's piece isn't terribly interesting, but it is good to see mainstream pundits talking about these topics.