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kilobug comments on Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don't get it. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Careful, this is from birth and for all categories. The survival rate to age 65 for a healthy middle-class educated person in his late 20s or early 30s is likely much higher than the survival rate from birth (the first few years of life are quite dangerous, and many chronic diseases should be already diagnosed at age 30), and middle-class educated persons doing intellectual jobs (the typical audience of LW) live longer than factory workers or miners.
According to Wolfram Alpha if you're a 30yo male in the US then your probability of reaching 65 is somewhere around 80%.
The other demographic details surely make some difference, but I wouldn't assume they're all favourable; for instance, being largely sedentary brings all kinds of problems.
[EDIT: I wrote 20% where I meant 80%. Thanks to wedrifid for catching my mistake!]
Shouldn't that be 80%? Either that or have a "not" in there someplace?
Oooops. Absolutely right, of course. Now fixed.