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CronoDAS comments on Orwell and fictional evidence for dictatorship stability - Less Wrong Discussion
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Orwell did write that Oceana wasn't robust to genuine external threats, but his fictional world lacked them. Also, I suspect that a sufficiently bad natural disaster could also disrupt things enough to shut down the system and force people to start over.
Where did he write this?
I don't remember exactly. It may have been in "Goldberg"'s book where it was implied that Oceania, being based on self-delusion, could be destroyed if external reality hit it hard enough that it couldn't simply ignore it - for example, if it were conquered by a far superior military force. However, the two other world powers in 1984 are exactly the same as Oceania, so it won't happen.
They are apparently the same, but we don't have any reliable source information about them. For all we really know, they might not even actually exist.