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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Orwell and fictional evidence for dictatorship stability - Less Wrong Discussion
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Really? What examples do you have in mind? China (which has changed a lot), North Korea and Cuba (which survive because of isolation), the Vatican (tiny anachronism), and a few others?
Whereas large parts of Europe have been democratic since the end of the 1940s, and the USA, the UK and Switzerland have been pretty democratic for over a hundred years (I count the US since the end of the civil war).
This isn't a systematic analysis, but all the evidence available to me seems to scream that democracies are the absorbing states - once your country's been there for a while, it doesn't tend to leave.
Edit - moved to a different comment.