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DanArmak comments on Orwell and fictional evidence for dictatorship stability - Less Wrong Discussion
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Drastic change in most policies, and in either direction (good/bad), is most likely to happen after a regime change. This is just because in an autocracy, the most important policies are set by the ruler, and people don't change their opinions much, and changing an important policy is a politically weak move.
Whereas when a new ruler acquires power, he will want to make at least some changes - what's the chance that the existing policies suit him better than any alternative? And differentiating himself from the previous ruler can be politically beneficial.
But it doesn't follow the changes he makes will be to improve or relax his rule.
This seems to need a formal analysis, rather than an exchange of anecdotes. But we should have some examples, to define what we're talking about. Can you give examples of long-term regimes that got worse some time after their creation? I'm thinking Henry VIII, for instance, but I'm not sure what you have in mind.
Stalin's regime got significantly worse some 10-20 years after the Bolshevik revolution, once he got rid of the last of his comrades.
Point taken.
I'm not sure why you're asking this. That long regimes can (or tend to?) get progressively worse wasn't part of my argument. I was saying that there tends to be more change at the start of a reign than later on. And therefore, absent data to the contrary, I see no reason to believe these changes trend towards relaxation after regime changes, rather than merely showing regression to the mean.
As for long-term regimes that got worse later on: Mao seems to qualify, since the worst of his tyranny (e.g. Cultural Revolution) happened later on. Hitler didn't commit any world-scale atrocities until World War II started. Stalinism was worse in the Thirties than in the Twenties, and worse again in WW2.
Points taken. A dangerous individual at the beginning of a regime can make that regime go much worse over time.