Is there a general way to answer questions like this, which often occur in economics and the social sciences:
"Does institution X play a part in keeping parameter Y stable? It looks like parameter Y has been really stable for awhile now. Is institution X doing a good job, or is it completely useless?"
Well, to go ahead and state the incredibly obvious: in cases where institution X is not equally well-established globally, one thing to look at is variations in X among different nations, geographic regions, populations, etc. (depending on the kind of thing X is). If Y remains equally stable across the board while X varies, that's evidence that X doesn't have much to do with Y.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.