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ThisSpaceAvailable comments on Is our continued existence evidence that Mutually Assured Destruction worked? - Less Wrong Discussion
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" but it demonstrably did not prevent circumstances that could lead to a nuclear war." Do you mean "it didn't eliminate all circumstances", or do you mean "there were no circumstances that it prevented"?
I meant it didn't eliminate all circumstances.
I think you've pointed out a flaw in my argument. The statement "MAD made nuclear war impossible" is demonstrably false - nuclear war could still happen with MAD. The statement "MAD prevented nuclear war" could still be true - nuclear war may have taken place (and probably would have been more likely) in the absence of MAD, and therefore MAD did prevent a nuclear war.