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FeepingCreature comments on Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think the idea is that, given an assumption of having a fairly typical mind, the signal is supposed to be unlikely if one is not precommitted to whatever one is signalling allegiance to. Though honestly, I have no idea how you'd convincingly signal that you're following TDT. Evolution did not prepare me for that situation! :)
If the judge knows that you are trying to convince him, then there should be nothing you can do which convinces him short of committing to a penalty cost if you take a different action (which is the same as changing the payoff matrix); If I manage to commit to giving $1500 to a charity that I hate (e.g. Westboro) if I take both boxes, and communicate that commitment to the judge, then I can convince the judge that I will take one box.
I don't have to convince him of my decision process, only of my actions.