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fubarobfusco comments on Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong Discussion
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In 1, new LW readers start at the base rate for one-boxing, but some two-boxers switch after reading good arguments in favor of one-boxing, which other folks have not read. In 2, new LW readers start at the base rate for one-boxing, but two-boxers are less likely to stick around.
4 seems to explain Asimov's two-boxing; his view seems to be an attempt to counterfactually stick up for free will.
6 seems like 3; it's just attributing the "conversion" to the community's influence at large, rather than to Eliezer's specifically. (Neither 6 nor 3 assumes the arguments here are good ones, which 1 does.)