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JoshuaZ comments on Book: AKA Shakespeare (an extended Bayesian investigation) - Less Wrong Discussion

-1 Post author: matt 28 June 2013 04:34PM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 28 June 2013 05:52:11PM 3 points [-]

The point is that these are extremely small probabilities even in more rigorous areas. The idea that one can get probabilities on the order of 10^-13 strongly suggests that something is going wrong here, probably with a few helpings of motivated cognition.