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gjm comments on An attempt at a short no-prerequisite test for programming inclination - Less Wrong Discussion
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So, as of 2013-06-30 20:42 (UK summer time) it's 13:4 for "experienced programmers", 10:2 for "moderate programmers", and 7:2 for "non-programmers". The "moderate programmers" are beating the "experienced", and the "non-" are well within the margin of error.
Now, of course LW is a hive of scum and villainy^H^H^H^H^Hplace where even the non-programmers tend to be pretty programmery, and as Morendil points out the people who chose to take the test may be atypical somehow -- but, still, this looks to me like evidence that this isn't a very effective test for discriminating between people with aptitude for programming and people without.
Yes, I agree that the poll results aren't too encouraging. It might still be interesting to try the test on a more general population, but without a follow-up to see who eventually learned to program it would be hard to tell how accurate (if at all) it was.